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In April 2025, Canadian real estate prices experienced their most significant monthly increase in nine months, according to the House Price Index. The index rose by 0.3% (+$2,410) to $806,275, marking the second consecutive month of gains. This uptick occurred despite sluggish sales and high inventory levels, suggesting a potential shift in market sentiment. Notably, the data indicates a pattern of higher lows and higher highs since the 2022 peak, which could signal a forthcoming period of price growth. However, the sustainability of this trend remains uncertain, especially if buyer activity does not increase substantially.

Despite the monthly rise, annual price growth continued to decelerate, slowing to 1.9% (+$15,165) in April—the third consecutive month of decline and the slowest rate since September 2024. This deceleration highlights the ongoing challenges in the housing market, where prices have remained relatively stagnant since peaking in 2022. Currently, the average home price is just 6.3% (-$54,494) below the record high set 35 months ago, indicating that the market has not undergone a significant correction. This stagnation suggests that while sellers remain optimistic about a market rebound, affordability issues continue to hinder buyer participation.

The divergence between the House Price Index and the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) indices further complicates the market outlook. While House Price Index data, which is favored by lenders and based on land registry information, shows a modest increase, CREA's benchmark price declined by 0.7% (-$4,800) to $701,900 in April, marking a 3.6% year-over-year decrease. This discrepancy underscores the complexities in assessing market trends, as different methodologies can yield varying results. Overall, the Canadian housing market remains in a state of flux, with price movements reflecting a balance between persistent affordability challenges and intermittent signs of buyer interest.

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